How the U.S. Anti-Dumping Probe Could Reshape India’s Solar Industry

India’s fast-growing solar manufacturing industry, a key pillar of the country’s renewable energy ambitions, has been dealt a serious jolt. The U.S. Department of Commerce has launched anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) investigations into crystalline silicon photovoltaic (PV) cells and modules imported from India, Indonesia, and Laos. With India exporting nearly $790 million worth of solar equipment to the U.S. in 2024, the probe has put the future of one of India’s most important export markets at stake.

The Trigger: Allegations of Dumping and Subsidies

The petition was filed in July 2025 by the Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade (AASMT), representing U.S. solar manufacturers. They allege that:

• Indian manufacturers sold solar products in the U.S. at unfairly low prices.
• The exports benefited from government subsidies, distorting market competition.
• These actions caused material injury to the U.S. domestic solar manufacturing sector.

The Commerce Department has cited preliminary dumping margins for India at 123.04%, far above typical trade dispute thresholds.

The Stakes: How Big is the U.S. Market for India?

India’s solar exports to the U.S. have surged in recent years, driven by:

• High U.S. demand due to aggressive clean energy targets.
• Supply chain diversification away from China.
• Competitive Indian manufacturing costs.

In 2024, India shipped about 2.3 GW of PV cells and modules worth nearly $793 million to the U.S., accounting for 99.5% of India’s total solar exports in Q1 2025. This concentration leaves Indian exporters extremely vulnerable to any trade restrictions.

Possible Timeline and Tariff Risks

The U.S. investigation follows a set schedule:

• ITC Preliminary Injury Determination: by September 2, 2025.
• Preliminary CVD Decision: by October 13, 2025.
• Preliminary AD Decision: by December 26, 2025.

If both the International Trade Commission (ITC) and the Commerce Department find in favor of the petitioners, hefty tariffs could be imposed on Indian imports, potentially wiping out cost advantages.

Impact on Indian Players

The companies most exposed are those heavily dependent on U.S. exports for revenue. The likely affected listed players include:

Company Name	Exposure to U.S. Market	Current Focus
Waaree Renewable Technologies Ltd	Significant — U.S. a major revenue contributor	PV module manufacturing, EPC projects
Adani Green Energy Ltd	Moderate — some indirect exports via manufacturing arms	Utility-scale solar projects
Tata Power Renewable Energy Ltd (subsidiary of Tata Power)	Moderate — exports plus U.S. partnerships	Solar EPC, rooftop, utility projects
Websol Energy System Ltd	High export orientation	PV cells, modules
Premier Energies (IPO-bound)	Significant export focus	Solar cell/module manufacturing

Note: Adani Green and Tata Power have diversified portfolios, so their direct hit may be less severe compared to Waaree and Websol.

Stock Market Reactions

The news has already sent ripples through the market:

• Waaree Renewable Technologies shares fell over 6% after the announcement.
• Premier Energies saw negative sentiment despite not being listed yet, given investor anticipation for its IPO.
• Brokerages like Kotak Equities have flagged potential margin compression and volume loss risks for Waaree and Premier.

Strategic Responses by Industry

• Capacity Expansion in the U.S.: Waaree Energies is doubling its U.S. manufacturing from 1.6 GW to 3.2 GW to bypass tariff risk.
• Diversifying Markets: Companies are eyeing Europe, Africa, and Southeast Asia to reduce dependence on the U.S.
• Technology Expansion: Firms are exploring battery storage, hydrogen, and high-efficiency solar tech to stay competitive.
• Localizing Supply Chains: Efforts are underway to cut dependence on Chinese wafer and cell imports.

Broader Implications

• For India’s Renewable Goals: If export revenues fall, reinvestment into domestic capacity may slow.
• For Global Solar Supply Chains: Potential tariffs may push U.S. buyers to source more from domestic firms or alternative suppliers like Vietnam and Malaysia.
• For Investors: The next few months are critical — any preliminary negative ruling could see sharp stock corrections in solar-focused companies.

Conclusion

The U.S. anti-dumping probe on Indian solar exports marks a critical juncture for the sector. While industry leaders are quick to defend their practices and diversify, the overwhelming dependence on the U.S. market means the fallout could be significant. Investors, policymakers, and manufacturers will be watching the ITC and Commerce Department’s decisions closely, as they may well dictate the trajectory of India’s solar export story for the next decade.